Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 Gold Price Forecast to 4900 USD per Ounce
 |
| Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 Gold Price Forecast to 4900 USD per Ounce. |
Gold prices are expected to keep climbing in the coming year. Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, has raised its 2026 gold price target to 4,900 USD per ounce, up from the previous forecast of 4,300 USD. The revision, announced on October 7, 2025, comes as global demand for gold surges—driven by central bank purchases and growing inflows into gold-based investment products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Western markets. With current prices hovering around 3,977 USD per ounce, gold could gain roughly 23% next year.
According to a Reuters report, Goldman analysts said the outlook for gold remains “tilted to the upside,” supported by private investors diversifying into gold—a relatively small but increasingly attractive market. “ETF inflows could exceed our previous estimates based on interest rate movements,” Goldman noted in its research.
Data from Investing shows that spot gold prices reached 3,977 USD per ounce on Tuesday morning (Oct 7) at 7:15 a.m. WIB, nearing the psychological 4,000 USD mark. Over the past month, gold has risen 10.56%; over the past six months, it has surged 32%; and over the past year, it has soared 50%. The rally has been fueled by aggressive central bank purchases, strong ETF demand, a weakening US dollar, and rising investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical and trade tensions.
Goldman Sachs projects that central bank gold buying will remain strong—averaging around 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026—mainly driven by emerging markets seeking to diversify their foreign reserves away from the US dollar. The bank also expects gold ETF holdings in Western countries to expand as the US Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by about 100 basis points through mid-2026.
Although short-term speculative activity remains steady, Goldman said that the strong ETF inflows seen in September were not excessive but rather an adjustment to expectations of lower US interest rates. With all these factors combined, Goldman maintains a positive outlook for gold through 2026. If the forecast proves accurate, gold prices could reach a record high near 5,000 USD per ounce, cementing its position as a top safe-haven asset amid ongoing global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, domestic gold prices in Indonesia are also surging. As of October 7, 2025, digital physical gold on the Bareksa Super App stood at IDR 2,170,420 per gram (discounted from IDR 2,181,326), Pegadaian gold was priced at IDR 2,216,000 per gram, and Indogold at IDR 2,157,396 per gram. Over the past year, digital gold prices in Indonesia have climbed between 58% and 62.8%, while Antam gold bars reached IDR 2,284,000 per gram—up 54.53% year-on-year.
With the USD to IDR exchange rate at IDR 16,554 and global spot gold at 3,977 USD per ounce, this equals roughly IDR 2,116,610 per gram. Domestic prices are currently 1.9–7.9% higher than global spot prices, reflecting production costs, taxes, dealer margins, currency fluctuations, and liquidity premiums from strong physical demand in Indonesia.
Assuming the same exchange rate, if Goldman Sachs’s projection of 4,900 USD per ounce materializes in 2026, global spot gold could reach about IDR 2.6 million per gram. Adjusting for the current domestic premium, local gold prices could range between IDR 2.65 million and IDR 2.8 million per gram—an estimated 23% rise from today’s levels, aligning with Goldman’s forecast.
This potential surge in gold prices may have wide-reaching effects, especially for Indonesian retail investors who use gold as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness. However, market participants should still watch key factors like the Fed’s policy direction and geopolitical developments that could influence short-term volatility. If the bullish trend continues, 2026 could mark a historic milestone for gold—both globally and domestically.
