 |
| A Middle East expert says US attempts to influence Iran’s leadership are unlikely to succeed and may instead reflect broader geopolitical and economic interests. |
Efforts to push for regime change in Iran that are believed to be driven by the United States are viewed by some analysts as more of a geopolitical business interest than a purely political agenda. This view was expressed by Middle East expert Alexander Kuznetsov, who argues that Washington cannot influence Iran’s mechanism for selecting its supreme leader.
According to Kuznetsov, Iran’s political system operates through a unique structure that is largely immune to external political pressure. The country’s supreme leader is chosen through an internal religious and political process, not through international influence or demands from foreign governments.
He also noted that pressure from abroad often strengthens internal unity within Iranian society.
How Iran Selects Its Supreme Leader
Kuznetsov explained that Iran’s supreme leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, a body consisting of around 80 senior clerics. This council holds the authority to appoint and oversee the highest political and spiritual leader of the country.
Within this system, there is no role for outside actors, including the United States. As a result, any statements or demands from Washington regarding Iran’s leadership selection are unlikely to have a direct impact on the process.
He added that in Iran’s political tradition, foreign pressure is often interpreted as a hostile act.
External Pressure May Strengthen National Unity
According to Kuznetsov, Iranian society tends to rally together when facing external threats. Even groups that are critical of the government may still support national leadership when confronted by pressure from foreign powers.
In this context, political pressure from the United States could unintentionally reinforce domestic support for Iran’s spiritual leadership. This dynamic makes external pressure an ineffective strategy for triggering political change inside the country.
Kuznetsov also suggested that the United States hopes a figure more willing to compromise with the West may emerge from within Iran’s political elite.
Possible Changes in Iran’s Political Structure
Amid the ongoing crisis, Kuznetsov believes Iran’s political system could undergo certain reforms. One possible development is an expanded role for the military within the government structure.
Meanwhile, religious leaders may focus more on ideological guidance and personnel matters within the political system. However, such adjustments would likely remain within the framework of Iran’s existing governance structure.
Global Geopolitical Impact
The tensions involving Iran are also believed to carry broader geopolitical implications. Kuznetsov noted that the conflict could affect the economic interests of major powers such as Russia and China.
China currently imports about 15 percent of its oil from Iran, meaning disruptions to that supply could pose economic challenges for Beijing. Energy stability remains a critical factor in China’s economic strategy.
Additionally, regional instability could slow down major logistics and infrastructure projects involving Russia and China, including large-scale trade corridors across Eurasia.
Kuznetsov argues that attempts at regime change in Iran are not solely about domestic political transformation but also involve broader economic and geopolitical interests. In this environment, external pressure may strengthen Iran’s internal solidarity and make foreign intervention efforts even more difficult.
Berita Terkini, Eksklusif di WhatsApp Borneotribun.com
